January 19, 2026 : India is poised to cross the $4,000 per capita income mark by 2030, a milestone that would place it firmly in the upper middle-income country category alongside nations such as China and Indonesia, according to a new research report released by State Bank of India.
The report traces India’s economic expansion over the decades, highlighting the accelerating pace of growth. The country took nearly 60 years after Independence to build a $1 trillion economy, reaching that level in 2007–08. The next trillion came much faster, with GDP touching $2 trillion by 2014. India crossed the $3 trillion mark in 2021 and reached $4 trillion in 2025, reflecting a clear shortening of growth cycles.
Per capita income has followed a similar upward trend. India reached the $1,000 per capita income level in 2009, moved to $2,000 by 2019, and is expected to cross $3,000 in 2026. By 2030, per capita income is projected to approach $4,000, paving the way for India’s transition into the upper middle-income bracket.
Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor at SBI, noted that India’s performance over the last decade has strengthened its global standing. The country’s percentile rank in cross-country average real GDP growth has improved from the 92nd percentile over a 25-year period to the 95th percentile, placing India deeper into the top tier of global growth performers.
Looking ahead to the long-term goal of becoming a high-income country by 2047 under the Viksit Bharat vision, the report estimates that India would need to sustain strong per capita GNI growth. At the current high-income threshold of $13,936, this would require a compound annual growth rate of around 7.5 percent, which appears achievable given that per capita GNI has grown at an average of 8.3 percent between 2001 and 2024. However, if the threshold rises to about $18,000 by then, the required growth rate would increase to nearly 8.9 percent.
Factoring in an average population growth of 0.6 percent and a GDP deflator of about 2 percent, SBI Research estimates that India would need nominal GDP growth in dollar terms of roughly 11.5 percent over the next two decades. This, the report argues, is realistic, as India achieved close to 11 percent nominal dollar GDP growth in the pre-pandemic years and around 10 percent during FY2004–FY2025.
The report concludes that sustained reforms and policy continuity will be critical. With the right economic momentum, India is well placed to secure its transition into the upper middle-income category, where the per capita GNI threshold is around $4,500, and to steadily move closer to high-income status in the decades ahead. – IANS
